AGP Executive Report

Diplomacy: President Emomali Rahmon arrived in Armenia after attending the CICA summit in Baku, where he called for cooperation based on mutual respect and international law. SCO Meetings: Chinese Premier Li Qiang is due in Tajikistan from October 18 to 20 for an official visit and the SCO heads-of-government meeting in Dushanbe. India’s Defence Minister Rajnath Singh will also attend, as Tajikistan chairs the gathering. Culture: Dushanbe’s Mehrgon Festival celebrated Tajik traditions alongside an international forum on sustainable tourism and cultural heritage. Telecoms: Megafon Tajikistan says more than 700,000 customers now use its VoLTE service. Football: Hisor Central Stadium hosts Al-Arabi’s AFC Challenge League opener, while Tajikistan’s Istiklol begins its group campaign against Lebanon’s Al-Najma.

China Visit: Chinese Premier Li Qiang is due in Tajikistan from October 18 to 20 for talks with Prime Minister Kokhir Rasulzoda and an SCO meeting of government heads. CICA Summit: In Baku, President Emomali Rahmon called for stronger Asian dialogue and cooperation, highlighting Tajikistan’s UN-approved 2027–2036 peace decade initiative and its Dushanbe Process on counterterrorism. He also met Azerbaijan’s president to discuss closer ties. Security: Tajikistan joined other CIS states in signing a 2027 defense cooperation plan in Kyrgyzstan, with discussions covering military training, drones and robotic systems. Economic Outlook: The EBRD expects Tajikistan’s economy to grow 7% in 2027, even as overall Central Asian growth slows.

Regional Diplomacy: President Emomali Rahmon met Azerbaijan’s Ilham Aliyev in Baku on Oct. 14, praising friendly ties and discussing deeper cooperation ahead of today’s CICA summit. U.S. Engagement: Secretary of State Marco Rubio is due in Uzbekistan Oct. 17–22 for C5+1 talks and meetings with officials from all five Central Asian states, including Tajikistan, accompanied by more than 200 business leaders. Energy Links: Afghanistan says the Tajikistan- and Kyrgyzstan-linked CASA-1000 transmission project is 70% complete on its Afghan section; completion is targeted for March 2028, with Afghanistan expecting to receive 300 megawatts and earn transit fees. Football: Dushanbe hosts AFC Challenge League Group B, with Al-Arabi set to face Tajikistan’s Istiklol next Tuesday.

Regional Diplomacy: President Emomali Rahmon has departed for Baku to attend the 7th CICA Summit. Next week, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will visit Samarkand for the C5+1 ministerial and meet officials from Tajikistan and the other Central Asian states. He will lead a delegation of more than 200 business leaders. Aviation: Tajikistan’s Shohin Airlines has unveiled its first plane, an L 410 NG turboprop, and plans regional services, including flights in mountainous areas. The airline has also arranged training for staff at Turkish Airlines’ academy. Transport: A Japan-funded feasibility study is nearing completion for a new bridge over the Kafirnigan River near Vahdat, on the Dushanbe–Kulyab–Khorog–Kulma highway. Security: Tajikistan is among the CSTO members taking part in peacekeeping exercises in Belarus, running through October 16.

Dushanbe Airport: A new terminal is under construction, with annual capacity expected to rise to 8.5 million passengers. President Emomali Rahmon has called for the project to be completed within 18 months. Customs Case: Belarusian officials say they found more than $40,000 undeclared on a Tajik citizen arriving in Minsk from Tashkent. A criminal case has been opened, carrying a possible sentence of up to five years and confiscation of the money. Asian Challenge League: Dushanbe’s Istiklol will host Group B matches from October 17 to 23, facing Kuwait’s Al-Arabi on October 20. Tajikistan’s Regar-TadAZ will also compete, in a group hosted by Qadsia in Kuwait. Defence: India’s defence secretary says Tajikistan and Turkmenistan have bought Akash air-defence systems; neither country has publicly confirmed the reported deals. Economic Outlook: The Eurasian Development Fund forecasts Tajikistan’s economy will grow just under 8% this year, above the projected global rate.

Regional Security: Tajik troops are taking part in CSTO exercises in Belarus through Oct. 16, alongside forces from Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. More than 1,500 personnel are rehearsing peacekeeping and responses to biological threats. Economic Outlook: The Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development forecasts Tajikistan’s economy will grow just under 8% in 2026, above its estimate of global growth below 3%. Energy: A 3-megawatt solar plant has opened in Shughnan District, adding power capacity in Gorno-Badakhshan. Tourism: Tajikistan’s new 2027–31 domestic tourism program counts more than 400 attractions, including 1,000 gorges and 1,000 lakes, but flags gaps in transport, training and investment. Defence: India has confirmed sales of its Akash air-defence system to Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, as Central Asian states seek alternatives to Russian arms. Rights: A side event on human rights in Tajikistan called for action at the UN Human Rights Council, citing concerns over continuing repression.

Energy: Tajikistan has commissioned a 3-megawatt solar plant in Shughnan District, Gorno-Badakhshan, at an elevation of 2,600 metres. The South Korean-supported project includes battery storage and aims to improve power reliability. Defence: India confirmed sales of its Akash air-defence missile system to Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, as the countries seek alternatives to Russian arms. Tourism: A new 2027–2031 domestic tourism program highlights more than 400 attractions, including 1,000 gorges and 1,000 lakes, while acknowledging gaps in transport, service standards and investment. Poverty: A new UN index says multidimensional poverty has risen worldwide, but both the rate and number of people affected fell significantly in Tajikistan. Regional security: Tajik troops are taking part in CSTO drills in Belarus with more than 1,500 personnel from five countries. Rights: Human rights groups urged renewed scrutiny of Tajikistan after the UN Council ended its complaint review, citing concerns over past abuses and limited accountability. Telecoms: Megafon Tajikistan’s fixed-broadband customers will transfer to Tojiktelecom from October 19.

Border Quake: A magnitude 4.6 earthquake struck near the Tajikistan–Kyrgyzstan border on October 12; no casualties or damage were reported. Regional Security: Tajik troops are among more than 1,500 personnel from five countries taking part in CSTO drills in Belarus, focused on peacekeeping and responding to biological threats. Telecoms: From October 19, Tojiktelecom will take over fixed broadband service for Megafon Tajikistan customers, consolidating the service under the national operator. Human Rights: Rights groups urged the UN Human Rights Council to revisit Tajikistan, warning that ending its complaint review came amid concerns over the crackdown in Gorno-Badakhshan and the detention of activists. Travel: Tajikistan and Iran have expanded visa-free travel arrangements to cover land routes and travel through third countries.

Human Rights: Rights groups urged the UN Human Rights Council to act on Tajikistan after it ended its review of the country in July. Speakers cited the 2021–22 Gorno-Badakhshan crackdown, including 40 deaths and the detention of more than 200 activists. Security: Tajik troops joined CSTO exercises that began in Belarus on Oct. 11. More than 1,500 personnel from five countries are practising peacekeeping and responses to biological threats. Regional Cooperation: At the Awaza meetings, President Emomali Rahmon called for wider CIS cooperation, while Central Asian states agreed on reservoir operations for 2026–27; water quotas remain unsettled. Rahmon also proposed a regional AI centre in Dushanbe. Energy: Work continues at Rogun, where raising the dam in August enabled the reservoir to rise and increased output from its two operating turbines. Trade: A Japanese court case has exposed a long-running export scam: 7.4 tonnes of beef declared for Tajikistan were reportedly shipped to Hong Kong instead.

Rogun Dam: Tajikistan’s flagship hydropower project reached a new milestone in August, with the dam raised to 1,155 metres above sea level. The higher level will allow the reservoir to rise and increase output from its two operating turbines as construction continues. Defence Ties: India says it has delivered Akash air-defence systems to Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, offering an alternative to Russian equipment. The countries have not publicly confirmed the deals, and delivery details remain undisclosed. Regional Cooperation: At the Awaza summits, President Emomali Rahmon backed closer regional ties and proposed a Central Asian AI centre in Dushanbe. Central Asian states also agreed on reservoir operations for 2026–27. Education: The Technological University of Tajikistan has received five-year international institutional accreditation, covering its management, teaching processes and quality assurance.

Awaza Diplomacy: President Emomali Rahmon joined Central Asian and Azerbaijani leaders in Turkmenistan for talks on regional cooperation, transport links and technology. He also met Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov to discuss bilateral ties. Water Management: Central Asian officials agreed on water withdrawals and reservoir schedules for the 2026–27 off-season, and plan to develop automated monitoring in the Syr Darya basin. Iran Travel: Tajikistan and Iran have expanded visa-free travel arrangements to include land routes and travel via third countries. Education: The Technological University of Tajikistan received five-year international institutional accreditation. Economic Outlook: The Asian Development Bank forecasts 7% growth for Tajikistan in 2026, placing it among Asia’s faster-growing economies.

Regional Security: An INTERPOL operation across 17 countries seized thousands of illegal weapons; Soviet-era firearms were seized or surrendered in Tajikistan. Education: The Technological University of Tajikistan received five-year international accreditation for its management and teaching standards. Regional Cooperation: At the Avaza summit, President Emomali Rahmon backed closer economic ties with Azerbaijan and proposed a regional AI center in Dushanbe. Central Asian states also agreed on water withdrawals and reservoir schedules for 2026–27. Energy and Trade: Tajikistan discussed fuel supplies with U.S. officials after starting imports from Iran, while preparing to host the third Central Asia–U.S. B5+1 business forum. Tajikistan and Iran have also expanded visa-free travel arrangements. Economic Outlook: The Asian Development Bank forecasts 7% growth for Tajikistan in 2026.

Education: The Technological University of Tajikistan has received five-year international institutional accreditation, with new requirements for monitoring educational outcomes and quality. Regional Water Cooperation: Tajikistan and its Central Asian neighbors agreed on river withdrawals and reservoir schedules for the 2026–27 winter season, but country-by-country quotas remain unpublished. Diplomacy: President Emomali Rahmon joined CIS and Central Asia–Azerbaijan summits in Turkmenistan, calling for stronger cooperation in security, digitalization and sustainable development. Dushanbe also says it is ready to host the third Central Asia–U.S. Business Forum. Energy: Tajikistan discussed fuel supplies with U.S. officials after starting imports from Iran; Russia remains its main supplier, providing more than half of imports in the first nine months of 2026. Economy: UNCTAD projects Tajikistan’s growth at 6.6% this year, while an Asian Development Bank forecast puts it at 7%.

Regional Diplomacy: President Emomali Rahmon met Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov in Awaza during regional and CIS summits. Rahmon pledged support for Azerbaijan’s C6 chairmanship and proposed a regional AI center in Dushanbe, alongside closer industrial, transport and energy ties. Water Security: Tajikistan and three neighboring states agreed on water withdrawals and reservoir schedules for the 2026–27 non-growing season, and will develop plans for automated water monitoring in the Syr Darya basin. U.S. Business: Tajikistan is ready to host the third Central Asia–U.S. B5+1 Business Forum, with AI, IT, e-commerce and critical minerals among the priorities. Civil Society: A new report says restrictions have left Tajikistan’s human rights community struggling to survive. Travel: Tajikistan and Iran have expanded visa-free travel to cover land routes and journeys through third countries.

Regional Summit: At the October 8 meeting of Central Asian and Azerbaijani leaders in Turkmenistan, President Emomali Rahmon urged practical cooperation on industry, transport, energy and AI, including a regional AI center in Dushanbe. Tajikistan pledged full support for Azerbaijan’s incoming chairmanship, and leaders signed a joint statement. Civil Society: A new report warns that human rights groups in Tajikistan face mounting pressure, with defenders, lawyers, journalists and activists prosecuted for peaceful work and expression. Finance: Tajikistan’s lower house ratified agreements setting up a $200 million stabilization loan from the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development. Water Cooperation: Central Asian states agreed on water distribution and reservoir operations for the 2026–27 non-growing season.

Civic Space: A new report warns that independent human rights groups in Tajikistan are struggling to survive after years of pressure, prosecutions and restrictions on critical voices. Regional Summit: President Emomali Rahmon joined Central Asian and Azerbaijani leaders in Turkmenistan on Oct. 8, proposing a regional AI center in Dushanbe and calling for wider economic, transport and energy cooperation. Leaders also signed a joint statement. Economic Ties: Tajikistan’s parliament ratified a $200 million stabilization loan from the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development. A separate visa-free deal with Iran, effective Oct. 5, allows citizens to visit for up to 30 days within a 90-day period, including via land crossings and third countries. Water Cooperation: Central Asian states agreed on reservoir operations and water distribution for the 2026–27 non-growing season, as they seek stronger cooperation over the Amu Darya and Syr Darya. U.S. Business: Dushanbe is set to host the third Central Asia–U.S. B5+1 forum in April 2027, with discussions focused on investment, AI, fintech, e-commerce and strategic minerals.